Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 25.399276 28.867529 32.597933 36.904094 41.733214 46.977040 53.097800
2024-12-22 20.002432 24.663189 30.056051 36.739188 44.780028 54.122864 65.780723
2024-12-29 17.373092 22.565984 28.860077 37.016955 47.271585 59.696503 75.848780
2025-01-05 15.750659 21.414573 28.563708 38.195668 50.772294 66.567807 87.831874
2025-01-12 13.911963 19.699559 27.272392 37.830938 52.083308 70.553138 96.183171
2025-01-19 11.864783 17.461321 25.037488 35.946815 51.137890 71.407005 100.336199
2025-01-26 11.063720 16.839970 24.894324 36.820800 53.879731 77.218430 111.339759
2025-02-02 10.396558 16.329556 24.833486 37.755959 56.702770 83.228119 122.872536
2025-02-09 9.496111 15.380790 24.045161 37.546967 57.823322 86.847486 131.155567
2025-02-16 8.629541 14.398356 23.114839 37.029906 58.411203 89.671453 138.363279
2025-02-23 8.033767 13.781675 22.678813 37.204792 60.003567 93.993687 147.927662
2025-03-02 7.592916 13.371606 22.522274 37.780677 62.209668 99.300343 159.178032
2025-03-09 7.096877 12.841303 22.153530 38.021432 63.948383 104.052788 169.942559
2025-03-16 6.538795 12.158290 21.484807 37.725114 64.804040 107.471932 178.803836
2025-03-23 6.155797 11.741211 21.216604 38.051599 66.654111 112.498624 190.379362
2025-03-30 5.957779 11.634277 21.461020 39.246705 69.989590 120.040576 206.320706
2025-04-06 5.516778 11.046227 20.826098 38.877252 70.651251 123.238140 215.293000
2025-04-13 4.876453 10.030756 19.359621 36.943296 68.500464 121.649802 216.218706
2025-04-20 4.707908 9.900435 19.477368 37.840203 71.319756 128.512614 231.628553
2025-04-27 4.558369 9.793903 19.628237 38.799181 74.287887 135.746212 247.966154
2025-05-04 4.265019 9.375863 19.164596 38.584887 75.119180 139.307552 258.090039
2025-05-11 3.956376 8.900367 18.556595 38.054551 75.330902 141.772504 266.372609
2025-05-18 3.755141 8.631104 18.329146 38.233929 76.859232 146.625218 279.073008